DecarbPath Modeler: Portfolio Decarbonization Planning Tool

The DecarbPath Modeler (Decarbonization Pathway Modeler) is a modular, data-driven scenario modeling tool developed to support portfolio-scale greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions forecasting, decarbonization scenario analysis, and implementation planning. Designed to align with the DOE’s Framework for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Planning, the tool enables scalable modeling across diverse real estate portfolios using structured inputs and logic-driven workflows.

At its core, the modeler operates through five interlinked components:

1. Portfolio Structuring & Normalization
   Assets are categorized using configurable parameters such as building type, climate zone, system archetypes, and emissions intensity. This normalization enables abstraction from individual asset data, allowing representative modeling across large or heterogeneous portfolios.

   
   

2. Baseline Analytics Engine
   Core metrics—including energy use intensity (EUI), total site energy, and baseline emissions—are aggregated per category. These values provide the baseline state used to evaluate reduction trajectories over time.

   
   

3. Scenario Logic Framework
   Decarbonization strategies are encoded as parameterized modules that model the effects of:

   • Efficiency improvements (e.g., 15–30% load reductions)

   • Electrification levels (e.g., 40–90% fossil fuel displacement)

   • On-site renewable energy adoption (e.g., 10–15% offsets)

   These modules can be composed into multi-decade scenario tracks, each producing a forecasted emissions profile based on intervention timing and intensity.

   
   

4. Scaling and Temporal Modeling Layer
   Scenario modules are applied at category scale, with support for custom phasing logic and adoption curves (e.g., full implementation by 2030). Forecasts incorporate dynamic emissions factors for electricity based on regional grid decarbonization targets, supporting hybrid location- and market-based accounting methods.

   
   

5. Visualization and Pathway Comparison Interface
   Emissions forecasts are rendered as time-series trajectories, benchmarked against user-defined reduction targets (e.g., 50% by 2030, 80% by 2045). This enables rapid comparison of scenario viability and supports defensible decision-making around capital planning, policy compliance, and risk management.

   
   

The DecarbPath Modeler abstracts complexity into reusable scenario primitives and provides stakeholders—such as sustainability teams, energy analysts, and capital planners—with an architecture for simulating, comparing, and selecting GHG reduction pathways at scale. It is particularly suited for organizations seeking to transition from ad hoc energy planning toward systematized, portfolio-wide decarbonization strategies.